Are We On The Brink Of A Global Famine?

Publish Date 17 January 2026

A global famine is increasingly likely as breadbasket agricultural failures start to accelerate as we inch beyond the 2°C threshold of global warming. 1.5°C was the tipping point and increasing food prices and shrinkflation indicate that there are already many problems in the food supply chain and the primary driver is climate change and Overshoot.

Shrinkflation in Iran and the UK

Club and Penguin biscuits, both made by McVitie’s, can no longer be described as chocolate biscuits, as they now contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa, a change first reported by trade journal The Grocer.

Aquafresh complete care original toothpaste - from £1.30 for 100ml to £2 for 75ml at Tesco, Sainsbury's and Ocado.

Gaviscon heartburn and indigestion liquid - from £14 for 600ml to £14 for 500ml at Sainsbury's.

Sainsbury's Scottish oats - from £1.25 for 1kg to £2.10 for 500g"

Oats are an important cold weather grain. Production is impacted by rising temperatures and spring droughts

"Quality Street tubs - from £6 for 600g to £7 for 550g at Morrisons.

Freddo multipacks - from £1.40 for five bars to £1.40 for four bars at Morrisons, Ocado and Tesco.

"The amount of cocoa butter in white KitKats has fallen below 20%, meaning they can no longer actually be sold as white chocolate.

It comes after Penguin and Club bars lost their legal status as a chocolate biscuit, as they now contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa.."

https://news.sky.com/story/shrinkflation-its-not-your-imagination-these-products-are-getting-smaller-13459111

The Cocoa Industry is in crisis due to anthropogenic climate change and wildfires which have destroyed the crops.

"In Peru, wildfires destroyed vast areas of farmland in September 2024, in Mexico, cocoa farming is on the decline as extreme heat and erratic rainfall push young farmers to abandon the industry altogether. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Ecuador, and Indonesia, rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are putting cocoa production at risk.

Nowhere is immune! But what does this mean for you? Well, you're already feeling the effects. It’s often framed as a price crisis, but there’s much more to the story.

Chocolate is becoming more expensive, and in 2024 alone, cocoa prices soared by 400%, some manufacturers increased their prices, while others reduced sizes instead of raising prices outright – "shrinkflation". Either way, you’re paying more but getting less."

“What our beloved chocolate is facing is real. This is not just about higher prices at the checkout—it’s about a broken supply chain, struggling farmers, and an industry that needs urgent reform.”

https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org

India is a major food producer for the subcontinent region of South Asia. Climate change and disruptions to the monsoon are having a lasting impact on their food security causing the Government to ban exports of grain to maintain internal food security. 

"Climate change disrupts every stage of agricultural production. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, extended dry spells, and unseasonal rains directly lower crop yields by inducing heat stress, disrupting flowering and pollination, and damaging grains at maturity. Crops such as wheat, rice, and maize—cornerstones of India’s food system—are especially vulnerable. According to projections, a 2.5 to 4.9°C increase in temperature across the country could decrease the wheat yield by 41–52 percent and rice yield by 32–40 percent. 

These yield losses are compounded by soil degradation and water stress. Years of intensive monoculture and chemical fertiliser use, encouraged by the Green Revolution, have depleted micronutrients and organic matter in soil. In addition, studies have indicated that increased carbon dioxide levels are decreasing the concentrations of protein, iron, and zinc in crops such as rice, maize, and wheat"

https://idronline.org/article/agriculture/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-agriculture-what-we-know/

Ukraine, a major bread-basket producer of grain is doing surprisingly well considering the continued war with Russia.

The UK's 2025 Grain grain harvest experienced significant challenges, with many crops seeing reduced yields due to record heat and drought, leading to losses and variability, although some crops like wheat saw production increases driven by larger planted areas, even as overall staple crop output fell by 20% compared to the 10-year average, with barley production hitting its lowest since 2012. 

So the real question isn't what are we going to eat when the supermarket shelves are empty, its how do we plan ahead for when we are no longer able to grow grain? Becasue it will be shortly after the harvest that was 70% lower than the year when it was 50% lower than 2024. It will probably be the same year that wet bulb temperatures start killing people in droves, on the beach, enjoying another heatwave.

Think of this as another installment from the alternative National Emergency Briefing Update Service.

You can connect with all my content here: https://linktr.ee/SolidarityPrepper

#SolidarityPrepping is cooperative prepping. Its a combination of outdoor survival skills and good neighbourly conduct. It may be possible to overcome some aspects of climate & overshoot driven collapse by growing climate resilient foods, growing a famine garden. 

One thing is for certain, when the supermarkets are empty, the food banks will be too.

What will we eat when the supermarkets are empty?